Lula Rallies Tens of Thousands on Copacabana Ahead of Runoff

Nearly 159 million Brazilians are eligible to cast ballots on Sunday for the presidential runoff, a contest that polls indicate is currently tied. The two candidates, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, finished the first round on 4 October with Bolsonaro holding a 47% lead over Lula’s 45%. Since democracy was restored in Brazil during the 1980s, no candidate who lost the initial vote has successfully reversed the outcome to win the final round.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of Lula supporters gathered on the 2.5-mile stretch of Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Under bright sunlight, the crowd moved through the sand in a procession dressed predominantly in red. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner with the message, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" The rally served as the final major mobilization effort for the left-wing president before voting begins.

Josias Silva, a 61-year-old truck driver, carried a hand-painted sign stating, "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva argued that recent street protests, many of which were organized by students, indicate that "the people have woken up." He predicted a landslide victory for Lula with more than 60% of the vote, a projection that contrasts with recent polling data showing a much tighter race.

Most analysts currently view Bolsonaro as the slight favorite. He has campaigned on a platform of confronting violent crime with strict measures, leveraging the political legacy of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022. However, Lula has regained momentum in recent days. This shift follows reports of several scandals involving his opponent, including a claim by the magazine Piauí that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

The stakes of the election extend beyond standard political preferences. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Some democratic supporters fear that a victory for his son could lead to Jair Bolsonaro’s release or his return to government. Brazilian press reports suggest that several of his fellow plotters, who are now in jail or exile, may receive senior military or police positions if the younger Bolsonaro wins.

Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, stated that her opposition is specifically to "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right wing in general. She cited the loss of four relatives due to what she described as Jair Bolsonaro’s neglect during the pandemic. Many in the Copacabana crowd are members of "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members created after the first round. Isabella Gaze, a 64-year-old retired teacher, described the election as unusual. Heitor Lopes da Silva, a 14-year-old student from Duque de Caxias, traveled to the beach in a wheelchair holding a placard supporting the president.

Bolsonaro supporters also held rallies on Saturday. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered at Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow football jerseys and waving both Brazilian and United States flags. Minas Gerais possesses the country’s second-largest electorate and is considered a critical bellwether state, as no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. In the first round, Bolsonaro led the state by just under 5%.

Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., a 59-year-old shooting club owner in Belo Horizonte, defended Bolsonaro’s security message. He stated that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to self-defense and that his son would continue that policy. Security experts note that the loosening of gun laws under Jair Bolsonaro diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, a trend Lula has since reversed by tightening regulations. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, carried a sign reading, "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts among Lula’s base regarding Bolsonaro’s ability to curb crime given his documented ties to Rio’s paramilitary militias.