Gulf Infrastructure: Targets for Post-Midterm Conflict

The United States and Israel may resume military operations against Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst affiliated with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed conflict appears almost inevitable. He expects this third phase of fighting to be more destructive than the previous two.

Citrinowicz, who served as an intelligence official in the Israeli military for over twenty years, believes the U.S. president has only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. He previously warned that striking the Islamic regime would not cause regime change but would instead widen the regional conflict. He told CBC News that this assessment remains accurate.

The current conflict consists of two separate wars fought over the past 18 months under the administrations of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The first war began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. It lasted 12 days and ended with a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup. That phase opened with Israeli strikes on Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz anticipates that the next round of attacks will target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications systems. He specifically noted that internet lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz are likely targets. He also raised the possibility that Iran might send parts of its land army into limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to damage the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on each other's bases or territory. However, the conflict continues through other means. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines.

A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington. Iranian demands include sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has likely pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

The human toll of the conflict is substantial. Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases, along with more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it.

Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation combined with an inflated Iranian development could produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy remains possible but is narrowed by maximalist aims, stating that asking Iran to change its identity will not succeed.