Statistics Lebanon: 66 Percent of Shi'ites Back State Control of Arms

The latest data on public opinion in Lebanon suggests a notable shift in the stance of the country's Shi'ite demographic regarding the future of its primary armed faction. A study released in mid-October indicates that the majority of this community is now open to the idea of placing Hezbollah's weapons under the authority of the Lebanese state, marking a departure from previous assumptions about their unwavering support for the group's independent military capacity.

The figures stem from a survey conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon, which polled 800 individuals identifying as Shi'ite. The results reveal that 66.4 percent of participants supported the handover of the group's arsenal to the state, whereas 29.6 percent preferred that Hezbollah retain its weapons. This finding directly contrasts with the long-held position of Hezbollah, which has consistently argued that its military inventory is vital for protecting Lebanon against Israeli aggression.

Further details provided by Kataeb.org, the online platform of the Christian Kataeb Party, highlight a strong preference for state sovereignty in matters of national defense. The site reports that 71.1 percent of respondents believed that decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the Lebanese state. Only a small fraction, 5.9 percent, felt that Hezbollah's leadership should play a more significant role in determining the nation's future direction.

Trust in the conventional military apparatus also appears robust within the surveyed population. Approximately 78.5 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces, and 51.1 percent identified the army as the best institution to ensure long-term security. In contrast, only 16.5 percent selected Hezbollah for that role. These numbers challenge the traditional narrative that the group is the sole guarantor of security interests for the Shi'ite community.

However, the overall sentiment is not uniformly negative toward Hezbollah. The poll found that 67.4 percent of respondents felt the group had either failed to achieve its objectives or had only partially succeeded during the recent conflict with Israel. Additionally, 42.1 percent expressed feelings of disappointment, anger, or concern about the leadership and the aftermath of the war. Despite this, 59.5 percent still maintained a level of trust in the organization, with 37.1 percent reporting a high degree of confidence.

Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that the group's enduring strength is largely sustained by the social support networks and status it provides to the sect. He suggested that this influence will persist as long as no other political or social entity fills the void left by any potential weakening of Hezbollah's position.

These findings stand in sharp contrast to earlier data. In a June 10 analysis for the Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That study found that 87.5 percent of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9 percent supporting the surrender of its weapons. More than 90 percent of those surveyed also opposed establishing ties with Israel. The disparity between these two sets of data raises questions about how specific phrasing or survey agendas may influence the resulting figures.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's power is deeply rooted in its social and economic networks, its political leverage, and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites in Lebanon. They also pointed to intimidation as a factor that discourages open dissent within the community. To weaken the group, they suggested that a stronger Lebanese army, backed by financial support from Western and Gulf nations, would be necessary to replace the services currently provided by Hezbollah.

Signs of local wariness are already emerging in practice. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, in their building due to fears it might become a target for Israeli strikes. Such branches have been struck in the past. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has announced financial aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those in other areas.

The group has faced significant military and leadership setbacks, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new phase of conflict began in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. Whether the current discontent translates into political change will likely depend on the state's ability to provide security, lead reconstruction efforts, and create new economic opportunities for its citizens.