Polls Project 12 to 15 Seats for Palestinian Blocs

Voters in the town of Kfar Qasim gathered recently to hear campaign promises, a ritual that has taken on new weight in the final week before the election. The community represents approximately 20% of Israel's total population, and their collective ballot may determine which side forms the next government. Current polling data indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Simultaneously, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is projected to fail to secure the 61 seats required to govern.

The arithmetic of the election leaves a gap of 12 to 15 seats. These positions are expected to be claimed by Palestinian citizens of Israel, split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. The Joint List is an alliance of three smaller parties, including Ta'al. This numerical range is sufficient to break the deadlock between the two main camps.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over twenty years, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for removing the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down," Tibi said. He characterized the upcoming vote as a choice between Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side, and the opposition on the other. Tibi described the decision as being between "bad and worse."

Despite this potential leverage, most of the Jewish Israeli opposition has ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have worked to make such alliances politically toxic. Campaign posters across the country display slogans such as "It's the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Historically, Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers. Raleb Majadele served as sports minister for two years, and Issawi Frej served as minister for regional coordination for just over one year.

Prospective voters argue that political posturing will change once results are tallied. Mohammed, a hi-tech company manager who oversees both Jewish and Arab staff, expects the opposition to adjust its stance. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," he said. He is urging friends of all backgrounds to cast their ballots. He noted that in 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas entered a coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu also opened coalition talks with Abbas at that time.

The decision to vote is driven largely by fear. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as key motivators. "The biggest motivation is fear," Abu Shehadeh said. He stated that voters understand the danger if the current far-right figures return to power. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group described the vote as a mechanism for mitigation. He noted that a returning far-right coalition would hold a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of annexation and ethnic cleansing.

Distrust of the electoral system has depressed turnout in the past. Last month, Israel's supreme court forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the October 7 attacks. The ruling was criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. A motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians, such as journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle to avoid legitimizing a system they view as inequitable.

The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the anniversary of the 1956 massacre. In that incident, border police killed 49 residents who had broken a curfew they were unaware of. Iraqi noted that while there is no clarity on what follows the vote, the act of voting addresses a widespread feeling of powerlessness among Palestinian citizens of Israel.