61 Seats: The Threshold Israel Must Clear to Avoid Another Deadlock
Polls show a tight race between Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, with neither bloc projected to secure the majority needed for government.
By Petra Murphy ·
For millions of Israeli citizens, the outcome of Tuesday’s election will determine whether the country enters another period of political instability or moves toward a new governing coalition. Polling data released on Friday indicates a near tie between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. The critical factor is that neither their respective political blocs are projected to win the 61 seats required to form a majority government in the Knesset. This arithmetic suggests that weeks or months of coalition negotiations may follow the vote.
The campaign has centered on national security. The opposition bloc has criticized Netanyahu for the security failures leading to the October 7 Hamas-led attacks. Nearly 1,200 people were killed in those attacks, and 251 were taken as hostages. The opposition has demanded an independent commission of inquiry, a measure Netanyahu has resisted, arguing it would be biased. In response, Netanyahu has framed himself as the leader of security, citing strategic victories in regional wars and his relationship with US President Donald Trump.
Eisenkot leads the Yashar Party, the anchor of the change bloc. This coalition includes leaders with diverse ideological views, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, right-winger Avigdor Lieberman, and left-leaning former general Yair Golan. Their shared goal is to end Netanyahu’s tenure. For Netanyahu, a return to power depends on maintaining an alliance with the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. This current governing coalition is considered the most right-wing in Israeli history.
Two Arab party blocs are also in the race. Approximately one-fifth of Israel’s population is Arab, many of whom identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. While they could theoretically become kingmakers, all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming a government with them. The opposition has also pointed to threats to democracy, citing Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial and his push for contentious judicial reforms that sparked mass protests before the war began.
In the final days of the campaign, Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought last-minute military action against Iran but was opposed by his military chief, Eyal Zamir. CNN subsequently reported that Netanyahu tried to persuade Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran, a move Trump refused. Netanyahu denied both reports. He also posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, warning he is the only leader who can protect Israel if Iran acquires nuclear weapons. Eisenkot described the move as hysterical.
Conscription remains a divisive issue. Netanyahu’s government has failed to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study. Eisenkot supports a similar position on Gaza, pledging to end Hamas rule within 18 months through a US-led peace plan or military means. Israel has continued striking Gaza daily since last year’s ceasefire, targeting Hamas operatives. Gaza’s health ministry reports that more than 74,000 people have been killed since the war began.
Exit polls will be published by Israeli broadcasters at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. These polls provide an early indication of voting trends but can vary. Many votes cast by soldiers and reservists will not be counted until Wednesday, potentially benefiting right-wing parties with strong support in that demographic. If no bloc reaches the majority threshold, Israel faces the risk of political deadlock, which would trigger new elections and keep Netanyahu in power as interim prime minister. Israel held five separate elections between 2019 and 2022 due to such struggles to form coalitions.
