Election night signals emerge only after 7:30 p.m. Eastern

Voters can stop refreshing their phones for the first half of election night. David Wasserman, a senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report, told NPR on Monday that meaningful data on the race's outcome will not appear until 7:30 p.m. ET. He advised that early guesses are often misleading and that the night requires patience to interpret correctly.

Wasserman said the first useful returns are expected from Florida between 7:00 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET. By 8:00 p.m. ET, large batches of votes from Texas and Ohio should offer a clearer view of the battle for the Senate. These states provide the initial hard numbers that allow analysts to gauge the national trend.

The analyst cautioned against relying on exit polls to determine a winner. While these surveys show which issues matter to voters, they are not always accurate indicators of the final tally. Wasserman noted that the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan, which conducts exit polling for major television networks, combines Election Day interviews with a pre-election survey. He pointed out that the pre-election component faces low response rates, a common challenge for all polling methods.

Wasserman analyzed the final push by President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama. He observed that Trump is working to energize his base while struggling to hold onto voters who helped elect him. This group includes some independents who previously supported Obama twice. According to Wasserman, these voters were drawn to Trump’s 2024 promises of a stronger economy, fewer foreign conflicts, and protected social safety nets. He said independents are now rating Trump low on all three fronts, an advantage that is helping Democrats.

Several House districts will serve as early tests for the night. Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, a close race in the Lexington area, could provide an early national signal because polls there close early. In Florida, the 22nd and 14th districts are considered toss-ups. Wasserman said Democrats winning both, one in South Florida and one in Tampa, would signal a strong night for the party.

South Carolina’s 1st District is another key race to monitor. This open seat in the Charleston area was previously held by Republican Nancy Mace. The outcome may be influenced by the close Senate contest taking place in the same state.

Wasserman identified three critical races in Virginia. A win for Republican Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District would be a better-than-expected result for her party. The 1st District race between Republican Rob Wittman and Democrat Shannon Taylor is a toss-up. However, if Democrat Tom Perriello unseats Republican John McGuire in the 5th District, it could indicate a major wave. Wasserman described this scenario as a potential tsunami that would reshape the political map.

He concluded his analysis with a call for restraint, stating, "We really have to wait for the hard results to be able to draw inferences on what's happening."