Texas Polls Show Five-Point Democratic Lead in Redrawn 15th District

The Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered Donald Trump a historic share of Hispanic votes in 2024, is showing signs of political realignment. With midterm elections scheduled for November 3, recent polling indicates a Democratic advantage in a district Republicans redrew to secure a major majority.

Surveys conducted since late summer reveal that a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president. These same polls show a preference for Democratic candidates over Republican ones by a wide margin. This shift contrasts sharply with the 55% of Hispanic votes Trump captured in the state during his 2024 presidential campaign.

Economic pressure is driving the change in sentiment. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to support a Democrat in November. Guerrero cited labor shortages, noting that an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk to just four or six employees.

Immigration enforcement has become a central issue for local voters. Father Roy Snipes, a priest in McAllen who has served his congregation for nearly 50 years, preached on the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He stated that there is no good excuse to detain and deport neighbors who are poor and good people. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026.

The Texas 15th congressional district was redrawn in 2025 to give Republicans a notional 18-point majority. Current polling, however, shows a Democratic lead of five to six points. Bobby Pulido, the Democratic candidate, has campaigned on local economic concerns rather than national party issues. Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA."

Republican officials acknowledge the challenges ahead. Tano Tijerina, the candidate for the neighboring 28th district, said national political headwinds are real. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as purely a game of turnout. The party hopes that its success in reducing border crossings, which are now at their lowest level in decades, will offset local dissatisfaction.

A modest swing back to the Democrats could have implications beyond the House seat. In the state of Texas, such a shift could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.