5.1% for Opportunity Party Could Force Coalition in Tight New Zealand Race
With polls showing a narrow gap between major parties, the centrist Opportunity Party holds the key to forming a coalition as voting closes Saturday.
By Tunde Bailey ·
New Zealand voters head to the polls Saturday in a race that polling data suggests will be decided by a small centrist party. The campaign ended Friday with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins both claiming confidence in their respective chances, while the nation grapples with a stalled economy.
A poll released Friday by Infrastructure New Zealand placed Labour at 30.7% of the vote and National at 26.4%. This margin leaves the outcome uncertain, as neither party has a clear path to a majority. The centrist Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, sits at 5.1%, just above the threshold required for parliamentary representation. This position makes the party a potential kingmaker in any future government.
Luxon, leading the incumbent National Party, told supporters and media on Friday that the result would be tight. "It is going to be close. It will be tight, and that's why you've got to get out and make sure you do vote," he said. He added, "The only poll that matters is tomorrow night."
Hipkins, who served briefly as Prime Minister before losing to Luxon in 2023, expressed confidence that Labour would emerge as the largest party. "We're banking on being the biggest party in Parliament. I'm feeling increasingly confident of that," he stated during a news conference. He noted that it was too early to discuss potential coalition partners.
Advanced voting has been open since October 26. According to the New Zealand Electoral Commission, nearly 1.67 million people had voted by Thursday, representing more than one-third of eligible voters. Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, which is part of the current governing coalition, voted in front of media in Auckland on Friday. From midnight, all campaigning and advertising cease until voting ends at 7pm on Saturday.
New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional system where coalitions are the standard method for forming a government. The tight race means smaller parties will likely hold decisive power. Official results are scheduled for release on November 27, which includes overseas votes and votes cast outside electorates. This final tally can sometimes alter the balance of power, leading parties to delay finalizing agreements until these numbers are known.
In the 2023 election, it took National, ACT, and New Zealand First 41 days to sign a governing agreement. Commentators expect a similar timeline this year as parties negotiate terms. The current coalition has indicated it is prepared to work together again if it retains power. On the left, Labour, the Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori could form a coalition, though polls suggest the Opportunity Party may choose to work with either side.
Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party. The election is being heavily influenced by economic concerns. Unemployment rose to 5.7% in the third quarter, the highest level in 11 years. Growth remains subdued, and household budgets are strained by inflation, high petrol and food prices, and housing costs. The country faces a structural budget deficit and rising public debt, which will pressure the next government to balance spending.
Other key issues include healthcare, Māori government relations, and climate policy. Disputes over the Treaty of Waitangi and co-governance remain contentious. Foreign and defense policy have also gained prominence due to tensions between New Zealand's security partners and China, its largest trading partner. Voters are focused on how the next government will manage these complex challenges while stabilizing the economy.
